In March 2026, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity maintained a high operating level. As of the end of March, the completed production capacity stood at 44.98 million tons per annum (Mt/a), with the operational capacity at 44.47 Mt/a, representing a month-on-month increase of 80,000 tons per annum. The overall capacity scale remained stable with a slight rise in operational capacity.
The first batch of electrolytic cells for the green and low-carbon energy efficiency upgrading project of Tianshan Aluminum has been energized and put into production. The remaining units are scheduled to be commissioned in the first half of 2026, which will lift the company's electrolytic aluminum capacity to 1.40 Mt/a upon full operation. Meanwhile, the second-phase project of Zha Aluminum is in smooth overall operation with steady capacity ramp-up. Upon reaching full design capacity, the company's total electrolytic aluminum capacity will rise to 1.61 Mt. On March 26, the electrolytic aluminum construction project of Wanji Aluminum (Xinjiang) Co., Ltd. officially started, with a designed annual capacity of 580,000 tons upon completion. At present, China's electrolytic aluminum capacity is approaching the ceiling, with the industry operating rate staying above 98%. Further output release and capacity expansion have nearly reached their limits.
After adjustment, China's electrolytic aluminum output in March stood at 3.795 million tons. The output for April is estimated at 3.676 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, with an average daily output of approximately 122,500 tons.
Figure 1 Annualized Output of China's electrolytic Aluminum
Data Source: Antaike
In terms of overseas production, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continued to escalate in March, disrupting shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. This directly affected energy supply in the region, triggering large-scale production cuts and shutdowns of local aluminum smelters. As a result, overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity gradually contracted, leading to a notable tightening of global electrolytic aluminum supply.
On the production resumption front, in mid-to-late March, Alcoa's San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain resumed production smoothly. Currently, the plant's capacity has recovered to 90% of its designed level. With a full-load capacity of 228,000 tons per annum, the smelter is expected to reach full-capacity operation by mid-2026.
On the production reduction front, on March 12, Qatalum (648,000 tpa capacity) issued an official announcement stating that due to natural gas supply constraints, it would maintain its electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization at 60%, equivalent to an annual production cut of about 259,000 tons. In mid-March, Aluminum Bahrain (Alba) officially announced that affected by shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, it would suspend Production Lines 1 to 3 to optimize raw material inventory consumption. The capacity reduction accounts for 19% of the total, approximately 308,000 tpa, against the plant's total capacity of around 1.62 Mt/a. On March 16, South32's Mozal aluminum smelter in Mozambique (580,000 tpa) officially shut down for maintenance. On March 28, Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA) suffered major drone attacks at its Al Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi (1.50 Mt/a capacity), with ongoing assessment of the resulting losses.
According to data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), overseas electrolytic aluminum output reached 2.292 million tons in February 2026, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% and a month-on-month rise of 0.3%, with an average daily output of 82,000 tons.
Figure 2 IAI Average Daily Overseas electrolytic Aluminum Output
Data Source: International Aluminium Institute (IAI)