In November 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity maintained steady growth at a high level. As of the end of November, the completed production capacity stood at 44.83 million tons per annum, with operating capacity reaching 44.21 million tons per annum, a month-on-month increase of 0.01 million tons per annum. The overall production capacity remained stable, and the production layout continued to advance steadily.
On November 20, 2025, the Department of Industry and Information Technology of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region issued an announcement on the capacity replacement plan for the 210,000-ton electrolytic aluminum construction project of Xinjiang Qiya Aluminum & Power Co., Ltd. Located at No. 451 Huancheng West Road, Zhundong Economic and Technological Development Zone in Xinjiang, the project is designed with an estimated 156 sets of 500kA electrolytic cells, with capacity indicators sourced from Xinjiang Qiya Aluminum & Power Co., Ltd. It is scheduled to start construction in November 2025 and be completed and put into operation in December 2026.
On November 26, the first batch of 120 electrolytic cells of the 1.4 million-ton electrolytic aluminum green low-carbon energy efficiency improvement and renovation project of Tianshan Aluminum Industry officially started power-on and commissioning, laying a solid foundation for the future full-capacity operation of 1.4 million tons per annum. The second phase of Zhalute Aluminum, with a capacity of 350,000 tons per annum, is planned to be powered on on December 20. As a landmark project of the State Power Investment Corporation in building a new "source-grid-load-storage direct supply" paradigm, the project adopts 500kA electrolytic cell technology. It is expected to reach full production capacity in 2026, and the proportion of green power will account for 80% after putting into operation.
The completed production capacity is projected to hit 45.25 million tons per annum by the end of 2025. At present, against the backdrop of production capacity approaching the "ceiling" and operating rate remaining above 98%, there is very limited room for further growth in output and production capacity.
After adjustment, the output in October was 3.766 million tons; the estimated output in November reached 3.642 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with a daily average output of approximately 121,600 tons.
Figure 1: Annualized Output of Electrolytic Aluminum in China
Data Source: Antaike
In terms of overseas production, besides the risk of production cuts or suspension in some electrolytic aluminum plants last month due to power supply and electrical failures, multiple companies made strategic decisions on production layout this month. On November 14, Ethiopia Investment Holdings signed an aluminum smelter agreement with Rusal, planning to build a large-scale aluminum smelter in Ethiopia with a proposed capacity of 500,000 tons per annum.
On November 17, Hydro will invest 2.5 billion Norwegian kroner in constructing a new pumped storage power station, which broke ground in November this year and is expected to be put into operation in 2030. The new pumped storage power station will provide an additional 107 GWh of renewable energy annually for Hydro's aluminum production in Norway. On November 20, Indonesia Asahan Aluminium (Inalum) announced plans to build an aluminum plant in West Kalimantan with a capacity of approximately 600,000 tons per annum, scheduled for commissioning in 2029.
According to data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), the overseas electrolytic aluminum output in October 2025 reached 2.528 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%; the cumulative overseas electrolytic aluminum output from January to October totaled 24.615 million tons, basically the same as the same period last year.
Figure 2: Daily Average Output of Overseas Electrolytic Aluminum (IAI)
Data Source: International Aluminium Institute (IAI)