In October 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity remained at a high and stable level. As of the end of October, the installed capacity reached 44.7 million tons per year, with an operating capacity of 44.2 million tons per year, basically unchanged from the previous month. In the next two months, with the completion of the 350,000-ton/year Phase II project of Zhalu Aluminum, the installed capacity is expected to reach 45.05 million tons per year by the end of 2025. Against the backdrop of near-capacity "ceiling" and an operating rate consistently above 98%, there is extremely limited room for growth in both capacity and output.
After adjustment, the output in September was 3.644 million tons; the estimated output in October is 3.770 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with a daily average output of approximately 121,600 tons.
Figure 1 China's Electrolytic Aluminum Output (Annualized Rate)
Source: Antaike
Overseas production-wise, multiple aluminum plants abroad reduced output or indicated production cut risks in October due to factors such as electrical failures and power supply issues. On October 21, Norðurál Grundartangi ehf, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Century Aluminum, announced that it was forced to cut production by approximately two-thirds due to electrical equipment failures at its Grundartangi aluminum smelter in Iceland, which has a designed capacity of around 200,000 tons per year. According to foreign media reports, multinational mining company South32 plans to shut down its aluminum plant in Mozambique (with a capacity of about 600,000 tons per year) after the expiration of the existing power agreement in March 2026, as high power costs make operations unsustainable. In addition, Rio Tinto stated that it is considering closing its Tomago aluminum smelter in Australia (involving a capacity of 600,000 tons per year) when the power contract expires in 2028, as it cannot find a stable and economical power supplier.
Data from the International Aluminum Institute (IAI) shows that overseas electrolytic aluminum output in September 2025 was 2.436 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%; the cumulative overseas output from January to September reached 22.090 million tons, basically flat with the same period last year.
Figure 2 IAI Overseas Electrolytic Aluminum Daily Average Output
Source: International Aluminum Institute (IAI)