In March 2025, China's primary aluminum production capacity continued to grow steadily. By the end of March, the total installed capacity reached 44.67 million tons per year, with operational capacity at 43.89 million tons per year, an increase of 200,000 tons per year compared to the previous month. The growth in operational capacity this month was primarily driven by the resumption of production in Sichuan and Guizhou, totaling 180,000 tons per year, as well as the continued ramp-up of the Chinalco Qinghai project. An additional 200,000 tons per year of idle capacity is expected to resume production in the second quarter. Production in March is estimated at 3.742 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, with a daily average output of 120,700 tons, up 0.1% month-on-month.
The industry's capacity layout is still being optimized, with some capacity indicators still seeking the most optimal locations. On March 28, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with nine other departments, jointly issued the "High-Quality Development Implementation Plan for the Aluminum Industry (2025-2027)." The plan emphasizes maintaining a total capacity constraint for primary aluminum, optimizing the implementation of capacity replacement policies, and ensuring that new replacement projects meet requirements such as an AC power consumption of no more than 13,000 kWh per ton of aluminum liquid and an environmental performance rating of Grade A. The plan also encourages the use of electrolytic cells of 500 kA and above and increases the proportion of clean energy usage. This month, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps' Industry and Information Technology Bureau publicly announced the capacity replacement plan for the 200,000-ton primary aluminum construction project of Xinjiang Huazhang Aluminum Co., Ltd. from March 7 to March 20, 2025. The plan involves relocating 256 300 kA aluminum electrolytic cells from Henan Yugang Longquan Aluminum Co., Ltd. to Xinjiang Huazhang Aluminum Co., Ltd. The project is located in the Luotuoquanzi Industrial Park of the New Star Economic and Technological Development Zone, with construction of 128 600 kA aluminum electrolytic cells starting in March 2025 and expected to commence production in December 2026.
Figure 1: Annualized Production of Primary Aluminum in China
Source: Antaike
In February 2025, overseas primary aluminum production was 2.275 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, with a daily average output of 81,000 tons, up 0.9% month-on-month. Despite the large scale of overseas capacity under construction in recent years, the actual construction and commissioning progress has been relatively slow. For example, the second phase of Huaqing Aluminum's 250,000-ton per year project was completed and put into operation in 2024, but production was temporarily halted in November last year due to cost issues. However, with rising aluminum prices and falling alumina prices, the project resumed full production in the first quarter of 2025, achieving a full-load operation of approximately 500,000 tons per year. Other new projects are expected to be gradually released in the third quarter of 2025. The recovery of idle capacity in regions such as Europe and America has also been slower than expected, limiting the overall growth rate of overseas supply capacity. Among these, the resumption of production at Trimet's Essen, Hamburg, and Voerde aluminum plants in Germany is currently underway.
Figure 2: Daily Average Production of Primary Aluminum Overseas by IAI
Source: International Aluminium Institute (IAI)