In April 2025, China's primary aluminum production capacity saw a slight increase. By the end of April, the total installed capacity reached 44.67 million tons per year, with operational capacity at 43.93 million tons per year, a month-on-month increase of 40,000 tons per year. The growth in operational capacity this month was primarily driven by the resumption of idled capacities in Sichuan and Qinghai, as well as the commissioning of new projects. Against the backdrop of total capacity nearing the "ceiling" and an operating rate exceeding 98%, the room for further growth in both capacity and output is extremely limited. April's output is estimated at 3.62 million tons, up 3.4% year-on-year, with a daily average output of 120,700 tons, reflecting a slight 0.2% increase month-on-month.
On April 16, the National Development and Reform Commission and other authorities issued the 《Negative List for Market Access (2025 Edition)》, reiterating the prohibition of new capacity in key sectors such as steel, coking, cement clinker, flat glass, primary aluminum, alumina, and coal chemical industries in key regions. Since the release of the 《Three-Year Action Plan for Winning the Blue Sky Defense War》in 2018, China has strictly prohibited new primary aluminum capacity in key regions, including the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area and its surroundings, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Fenwei Plain, maintaining this policy ever since.
Figure 2: China's Primary Aluminum Production (Annualized)
Data Source: Antaike
In March 2025, overseas primary aluminum production reached 2.498 million tons, up 0.9% year-on-year. In the first quarter, overseas production totaled 7.256 million tons, down 0.4% year-on-year. By region, Europe, Asia (excluding China), South America, and Africa saw varying degrees of production growth, with year-on-year increases of 2.1%, 1.2%, 3.1%, and 7.8%, respectively, while other regions experienced declines. Projects by Indonesia's Xinfa Group, Adaro Group, and Angola's Huatong Wire & Cable Group are currently under construction and expected to commence operations in the second half of the year, indicating a steady rise in overseas primary aluminum production capacity in the future.
Figure 3: IAI Overseas Primary Aluminum Daily Production
Data Source: International Aluminum Institute