In May 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity showed steady growth. As of the end of May, the completed capacity reached 44.67 million tons/year, and the operating capacity was 43.97 million tons/year, a month-on-month increase of 40,000 tons/year. The increment in operating capacity this month mainly came from the release of new projects in Qinghai and other regions; new projects in some areas such as Yunnan continued to be put into production, but the capacity indicators were all from the replacement of in-production capacity. The capacity and output of some provinces will be affected, but the overall production capacity theoretically will not change accordingly. After adjustment, the output in April was 3.624 million tons; it is expected that the output in May will be 3.746 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with an average daily output of 120,800 tons, basically the same as the previous month.
At present, China's electrolytic aluminum production is relatively stable, and some shutdown capacities will gradually recover in the future, but the overall scale is small. The large-scale upgrading of electrolytic cells remains the mainstream trend in the industry. The 600kA electrolytic cell capacity replacement and upgrading project of Chinalco Qinghai was successfully put into production, and the 600kA integration and upgrading project of Qiaotou Aluminum Electricity is being accelerated. In addition, after regional integration and reconstruction of some aluminum plants in Shanxi and other regions, while revitalizing some shutdown projects, the proportion of large-scale cell types in the industry will be further increased.
Figure 1 Annualized Output of China's Electrolytic Aluminum
Data source: Antaike
The overseas electrolytic aluminum output in April 2025 was 2.412 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%; the cumulative output of overseas electrolytic aluminum from January to April was 9.663 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, and the decline narrowed month-on-month. In terms of performance by continent, the output of Europe, Asia (excluding China), South America, and Africa increased by varying degrees, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.3%, 1.3%, 1.6%, and 5.6% respectively; the output of the remaining regions decreased by varying degrees.
Figure 2 IAI's Average Daily Output of Foreign Electrolytic Aluminum
Data source: International Aluminum Institute
As of the end of May, the social explicit inventory of aluminum ingots was approximately 510,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from the end of the previous month; among them, the SHFE aluminum inventory was 124,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the end of the previous month. The LME inventory was 373,000 tons, a decrease of 43,000 tons from the end of April.
In recent years, the enthusiasm for investing in overseas electrolytic aluminum projects has been high. Recently, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) announced the construction of an electrolytic aluminum plant with a scale of 600,000 tons/year in the United States, and Century Aluminum also has plans to continue building new electrolytic aluminum projects in the United States. The power supply problem has always been one of the main obstacles to overseas new or resumed electrolytic aluminum projects. According to public information, high electricity prices remain the main dilemma faced by the construction of electrolytic aluminum plants in the United States, which may have a major impact on the project construction schedule.